Introduction

"Your home for revolutionary sports picks, predictions & analysis"

And a community for sharing insights, opinions and stats!

Picks are generally graded on a 1-3 Unit ("U") scale, with 3U being highest confidence level. 1U = your standard wager.

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Thanks to @Chatham58 for the pic!

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

CBB for 2/22

6-2 and +4.6 units yesterday, nice profitable day on a big slate of games.  As I mentioned on Twitter it's a small list of games I like today, I found a few to play though.

Wake Forest -7 vs Pitt 1 unit
Wake has lost 3 out of 4 but all the losses were to teams ranked in the Kenpom top 40 and all were on the road.  I like them to roll tonight in front of their home crowd.
Kansas State -3.5 vs Oklahoma State 1 unit
Kansas State can take over fifth in the conference with a win here.  They won by 8 at Oklahoma State earlier this season as well.  The Wildcats have lost their last 3 at home so I'm keeping it a small play.
North Carolina -8 vs Louisville 1 unit
North Carolina plays a fast enough pace and has enough experience to handle the Louisville defense and pressure.  A win here keeps them in sole possession of the ACC lead as well.
Northern Iowa/Indiana State under 123 1 unit
UNI has an atrocious offense and a great defense and plays at the speed of a turtle on a muscle relaxer.  Indiana State hates to score.  Should be a fun one to watch!

May have one more on a late game too.

Flip's February 22nd Soccer Overs of The Day

Great return to the pitch yesterday, highlighted by an extra time goal in Sheffield/Brentford to cash our 3U play.  Other highlights included easy covers in both Champions League games, as a total of 14 (14!?!) goals were scored between both competitions. The day’s record: 3-1, +5U.

A different smattering of international games available today, here are our angles:

Spain La Liga – 12:45PM Kickoff

1U Real Madrid/Valencia Ov 3 (-135). The last five head-to-head matches between these sides all saw three or more goals.  Madrid will be anxious to keep its position in the top of the table, so I’d expect them to get at least a pair of goals, if not three.  Valencia held their own against Real during their January 3rd match of this year, so I’d expect them to be able to score at least once here.  I’d expect a 3-1 Real Madrid lead or 2-2 draw before this one finishes.

Champions League – 2:45PM Kickoff

2U Leicester/Sevilla Ov 2½ (-150). Leiscester’s defense has been awful lately, conceding eight goals in their previous five matches.  Sevilla is a heavy favorite to take advantage of this, as they are averaging about 2 goals scored on their home turf so far during this year’s La Liga campaign.  We’ll look for them to take a 3-0 lead at La Bombonera over the ailing Foxes.

1U Juventus/Porto Ov 2 (-110).   This seems like a generous line given the scoring prowess of both teams.  Porto’s netted 14 goals and Juve nabbed 11 in their previous five contests.  Juve’s the more talented side, so I’d expect them to take this by at least a score of 2-1.  

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

CBB for 2/21

1-1 yesterday, the 2 unit play came through for a +.9 unit day.  Big board today!

Penn State +8 vs Purdue 2 units
2 good defenses, Penn State lost by 25 at Purdue so I think this is inflated because of that big loss.  They are a much better team at home.
Clemson +1.5 at Va Tech 2 units
Clemson is the better defensive team, if they can slow down the Va Tech 3's they should get a big road win.
Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Ball State 2 units
Eastern Michigan will play this at breakneck speed and is in desperate need of a win, I think they win this one.
Dayton -12.5 vs George Mason 1 unit
Big defensive advantage here for Dayton, look for George Mason to get frustrated and struggle as the game goes on.
UW Milwaukee +14 at Valpo 1 unit
Milwaukee has to slow this down a lot to have any chance to stay in it, if they do that 14 should be too many for Valpo to cover.
Davidson -1.5 at Richmond 2 units
2 point loss at home for Davidson earlier this season, they're slightly better on both ends of the court statistically and have a revenge factor here.
NC State +3 at Georgia Tech 2 units
I refuse to give up on this team winning a game for their falling head coach.  It didn't work last time so you may want to take that with a grain of salt.
Mississippi +1.5 at Mississippi State 1 unit
Better offensive and defensive numbers and they play at a faster pace that the Bulldogs have struggled with.


Flip's Soccer Overs of The Day - February 21

It’s been a rough and tumble start to 2017 (22-25, -2.3 Units), as we’ve only managed to hover around even-money.  As winter is typically a slower time for international soccer, I’m hoping as the weather warms us in the northern hemisphere, so too does our goal-scoring.  A few plays today, with some rationale, as I know most of the recent plays have just been via Twitter.

All kick-offs scheduled for 2:45 PM EST

Champions League

2U Monaco/Manchester City Ov 2½ (-175). I had the option of Ov 3 (+100), but I’m willing to pay the heavy juice for the lower line.  If you can only get 3, I’d suggest just going 1U.   Both of these heavy hitters shouldn’t need too much introduction, but a match-up of one of the top-scoring EPL clubs against France Ligue 1’s top dog (and scorer of 76 goals in 26 domestic matches) should witness three or more goals scored.   My prediction is City pulls ahead 2-1 before the final whistle, but I certainly wouldn’t count out the opposite occurring against a dangerous Monaco side.

1U Atletico Madrid/Bayer Leverkusen Ov 2 (-130).  Both sides have notched at least three goals in their previous two competitions.   With both clubs showing good form heading into today’s match, we ought to see at least 2 goals scored, most likely with a 1-1 scoreboard.  I’ll give the nod to Leverkusen at home to score the late third goal and take this game 2-1.

England Championship

3U Brentford/Sheffield Ov 2½ (-125).  Nine straight games for Brentford have gone over 2.5 goals.  Five of Sheffield’s last six have done the same.  Brentford’s defense has been horrid on the road, allowing 14 goals in their previous five away contests. Sheffield ought to be able to win this one by a score of at least 3-0.  They won 4-0 when these teams met at the same time last year.

1U Burton/Derby Ov 2½ (+100).  Derby’s last four home games have seen a wealth of scoring, with 11 goals both scored and conceded.  Three straight games for Burton have gone over the 2.5 mark.  While both of these teams’ games average 2.5 or less goals a game, I think it’s worth a 1U play today given recent form and the even money odds. 

Sunday, February 19, 2017

CBB for 2/19

Went 3-3 yesterday, 1-3 on 1 unit plays and 2-0 on the 2 unit plays, for a +1.7 unit day.  Since I had to do a majority of them via Twitter, here's a quick recap.
NC State +5.5 vs Notre Dame-1 unit loss, final score felt closer than the game did most of the way
Illinois +5 at Iowa-1 unit win, won straight up
Rhode Island -5 at George Mason-1 unit loss (up 17 at one point in this one, kind of a bummer)
TCU +6.5 at Iowa State-1 unit loss, Cyclones looking good lately
Long Beach State -7.5 at UC Santa Barbara-2 unit win, cruised by 18
Washington +10 vs Arizona-2 unit win, kept it close until under 2 minutes and then it turned into a miss a 3 foul miss a 3 foul type of game.

Today will probably involve some Twitter plays again since I'll be out and about, but here's what I've got so far to work with.

Wisconsin -8 vs Maryland 2 units
Wisconsin is a better defensive team and I think they'll have Koenig back today (he's still listed as questionable on everything I see but that's my gut feeling).  The Badgers have lost 2 straight and we should see a more focused team today.
Detroit +8.5 vs Valparaiso 1 unit
7 point game when they played at Valpo, home court should be worth something here.

Keep an eye out for more @jtrottersluck and best of luck today!

Saturday, February 18, 2017

CBB for 2/18

3-0 and +7 units yesterday.  Trotter family excursion day today, so I will probably have to make most plays on Twitter today (@jtrottersluck) as the day goes along.  There's only one play I like early at all anyway.

NC State +5.5 vs Notre Dame 1 unit

NC State has lost 11 of 14 and managed to get Gottfried canned now.  This is their first game since that news though and I am making a small play thinking that the kids come out fired up and ready to play hard for him for the last few games of the season.

Friday, February 17, 2017

CBB for 2/17

1-1 and -2.3 units yesterday.  Michigan came through on their home court winning the 1 unit play but Drexel gave up a 3 with 12 seconds left to cost us for the day.

Oakland -1.5 vs Valpo 3 units
Cornell +1.5 at Dartmouth 2 units
Princeton -3 at Yale 2 units

All-Star Weekend Recap

Season: 95-86 +7.05 U
Last Night: Via Twitter – 1-1 -.1  
Celts lose in a heart breaker
Wizards Win Easy

Recap:

With All-Star Weekend finally here I’d like to take a look back at some of my futures picks for wins from early on and let you all know where I stand with those. My picks were as follows:
1U Celts over 51.5: Celtics have been playing well this season as they find themselves in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. I don’t think anyone would have anticipated the pure dominance that Isaiah Thomas has shown as he is a legitimate MVP candidate (although probably 4th on the list). Currently the Celtics have 37 wins currently with a .649 winning percentage. Based on that percentage they should find themselves in the 53 win range if they continue playing how they have been.
1U Warriors under 66.5: In what was probably my riskiest pick – the Warriors have had no problem finding rhythm and are primed for another championship run. They currently have a record of 47-9 with a .839 winning percentage, which has them on pace for around 69 wins. I anticipate them locking up the West early and resting some guys so the under is still very much in play here.
1U 76ers under 27.5: The Sixers have surprised me this year. Despite an awful start they have played well recently. While they sit at 21-35 with 26 games remaining, they need to go 7-19 in those remaining games for get the over. Right now they are projected at 31 wins, but I could see them getting more if they continue their positive play (or can see it being less too).
1U Blazers over 46.5: Well, to put it simply, the Blazers have let me down in every way this year. They probably account for my most incorrect picks (at least early on) and really have under achieved. They are 10 games under .500 and unless they do something serious in their final 26 games, and by that I mean for 24-2, this over is not going to hit.


Will be back on Sunday to pick the All-Star game. Might also be on Twitter @BucketASmith picking some of the competitions. Currently the Western Conference is favored by 6.5 and the O/U is 339. Stay Tuned

Thursday, February 16, 2017

BBall for 2/16

Back bitches.

With the best gambling (long) weekend of the year coming up when the Tourney tips off, and more importantly MLB season around the corner, I decided I needed to get back into blogging form. Time to put down the wedding seating chart and pick up any spare change left behind the couch that hasn't been burned at holding down a venue and putting it towards something that really matters...giving money to my bookie...Just kidding, come on positive thoughts only, we're about +7 units since the hiatus (including this beauty), lets check out whats on the slate for tonight.

We were making a run back to .500 units wise, but took a bit of a hit last night. Officially at .500 picks wise at least before the conference championship week starts and blesses us with midweek degen day contests.

***

BBall Season Record: 79-79, -7.9 U's in College Ball (with a couple NBA mixed in)

***

Already tweeted out my card for tonight, but here is a little reasoning behind my investments:

Michigan -2 (-120, buying .5), 2U

Bronson Koenig was just downgraded from probable to doubtful, which is a big blow for a Wisconsin team not known to light the scoreboard on fire and losing their biggest outside threat isn't going to make matters better.
I think Mich has had this game circled for a while after losing to them on their home floor the last two times. Michigan gets it done tonight with their statement win of the season, and Derrick Walton leading the way.

Marshall Over 172, 1U

Marshall has the third highest tempo rating in the nation as well as owns one of the lowest times per possession. This team puts up a ton of shots and in turn allows their opponent to as well. UAB is the #2 offensive efficient team in the conference and shouldn't have trouble getting some points up. Marshall had a combined score with UTEP of 163 couple weeks ago and UTEP has one of the worst offenses in the nation for Pete Sake.

Celts -1, 1U

Nice little nugget that I think most people know by know is how well the Celts have performed under Brad Stevens on the second night of a back to back. They are 9-3 this season and have a similar record overall (A stat I can't seem to find right now but you will have to take my word for it).
Celts have won 11 of 12, and have really seemed to come together as everyone has carved out a role for themselves. Can't imagine the pitiful Bulls will put up much of a fight. D-Wade is out again for the Bulls as well.