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Picks are generally graded on a 1-3 Unit ("U") scale, with 3U being highest confidence level. 1U = your standard wager.

Thanks to @Chatham58 for the pic!

Friday, December 9, 2016

Flip's Soccer Overs - Fri/Sat/Sun Weekend Edition

After winning days on Monday and Tuesday, we hit two straight losing days on Wednesday and Thursday.  Yesterday started off ok, as we split our first 2U games 1-1, -0.1U, but failed to hit either of the 1U plays.  Final total yesterday was 1-3, -3.55U.

We’ve regressed a little bit on the year after a rough few weeks in early December.  While November was particularly good, we’ve seen some reversal of fortune as we move towards year-end.   The record for the year stands at 200-177, +21.8U.

The weekend games tend to be a little bit kinder to us, and there’s no shortage of games for today, Saturday and Sunday.  Settle in, because here comes Flip’s overs for December 9th and 10th!

Note: Times are listed, but games are in order of confidence level.  Sunday plays still TBD.

*4PM EST Update - Saturday picks are complete*

FRIDAY 12/9/16
Denmark 12PM EST: 1U Aalborg /Horsens Ov 2½ (-110).  Horsens dreadful defense has given up 9 goals in their previous three matches.  All three of those went over 2.5 goals total.  Aalborg’s also shown poor defending in their recent road contests, allowing 6 goals in their last three away competitions.   Two porous defenses means a decent chance we’ll reach three goals.

Denmark 2:15PM EST: 2U Nordsjaelland/Sonderjyske Ov 2½ (-140). FTM Favorite Nordsjaelland in action today.  These two teams met in September and produced five goals. And their meeting during last season produced four (both wins for Sonderjyske).   4/5 for Nordslaelland have broken the 2.5 goal mark.  I’d expect a 2-1 or 3-0 game in favor of Sonderjyske before the final whistle.

SATURDAY 12/10/16
Germany 12:30PM EST: 4U Werder Bremen/Hertha Berlin Ov 2½ (-140).  This has to be a 4U play.  I wouldn’t disagree with you if you went 5U. All 13 of Werder Bremen’s games this Bundesliga campaign have gone over 2.5 goals.  Four of Hertha’s last five have done the same.

England 10AM EST: 3U Sunderland/Swansea City Ov 2½ (-125).  Swansea’s conceded 9 goals in their last two matches and four of Sunderland’s last five games witnessed at least 3 goals scored.  The matchup saw six goals when they met last January.

England 12:30PM EST: 3U Manchester City/Leicester City Ov 2½ (-140).  This game just screams “goals.”  For both teams, 4/5 last EPL matches saw 3+ goals.  Even with Aguero suspended, City should find the net at least twice, with Leicester providing a third on a Kompany-less City defense.

England 10AM EST: 1U Crystal Palace/Hull City Ov 2½ (+105). Six straight games for The Eagles have seen three goals scored.  Just 1U though, as Hull tends to be stingy on both sides of the all (scored 3, allowed 7 in their previous five matches).

The rest of the Saturday plays (all 1U)

France 11AM EST: 1U Monaco/Bordeaux Ov 2½ (-125).  Not much of a surprise here.  Monaco’s netted 19 goals in their previous five Ligue 1 contests.  13 of their 16  games this season saw at least 3 goals.  Bordeaux’s not as over-friendly, only averaging 2.4 total goals per match thus far. As such, we’ll keep this play at 1U.

France 2PM EST: 1U Lorient/Toulouse FC Ov 2½ (+115).  Another play in France, as Lorient go for an eighth straight game of the total breaking 2.5.  Again, the other side of the ball (Toulouse) isn’t as over-friendly…they’ve only scored 3 and given up 7 goals in their previous five matches.  Like Monaco/Bordeaux, we’ll only risk 1U in case the goals are sparse.

Lastly, just a pair of 1U  parlays of over-friendly teams to round out your Saturday!

Germany Parlay - 9:30AM EST Kick-Off
1U wins 2.5U
Darmstadt/Freiburg Ov 2½ (-115) & RB Leipzig/FC Ingolstadt 04 Ov 2½ (-115)

England Championship Parlay – 10AM EST Kick-Off
1U wins 2.3U
Norwich City/Barnsley Ov 2½ (-135) & QPR/Rotherham Ov 2½ (-110)

NBA Picks 12/9

Last Night: 0-1 -1U
Blazers fall apart down the stretch as the Grizz complete a comeback win

1U Raptors -2.5 (-110) – 7:30PM EST

Tough game to pick here for me as I’m picking the Raptors going against my Celtics in Boston. It looks as if the Celtics will once again be without team leader and Point Guard Isaiah Thomas due to a groin injury. The Celts played will without him on Wednesday, but tonight they play a team in the Raptors who boast 2 20+ point scorers in their backcourt. Demar Derozen and Kyle Lowry have been back court beasts and are basically an unstoppable duo. Without their stud player the Celts will have big trouble matching the scoring output that Derozen and Lowry will put out. The Celts also struggle rebounding, so Jonas Valanciunas will likely do work underneath the basket.

1U Cavs/Heat Over 209.5 (-110) – 7:30PM EST

LBJ takes on his former team tonight. The Heat are no longer the powerhouse they were when he was there, as none of the old Heat’s big 3 play anymore (Wade to Chicago, Lebron to Cleveland, Bosh with heart issues). I anticipate the Cavs putting up a lot of points against the Heat tonight as Miami really has no one that can guard Kyrie Irving, Lebron, or Kevin Love. Despite being the best team in the East and offensively scoring 111 points per, the Cavs defense has been suspect this year, allowing almost 105 a game. While the Heats defense is solid, their offense is not, so I think it will kind of balance out. I see the Cavs scoring significantly more than their 111 per game average, and allowing close to their average. If that happens the game should easily eclipse the 209.5 mark

1U Rockets Ev (-110) – 8:00PM EST

The Rockets travel to Oklahoma City tonight to take on the Thunder. In this matchup we will be pitting the 2 leading MVP Candidates (thus far at least) head to head. James Harden has been a beast this year averaging 29 points, 11 assists, and 8 rebounds. Not to be outdone, Thunder guard Russell Westbrook has been putting up some absurd numbers of his own, averaging 31 points, 11 assists, 11 rebounds. When it comes down to it in this matchup of superstars, Harden and the Rockets have a better supporting cast then Westbrooks Thunder. Behind Harden, the Rockets have 4 other players who average double digit scoring, along with several other bench players that can definitely contribute. Overall, the Houston lineup is just better and more consistent top to bottom and I think the Harden/Westbrook matchup will essentially be a wash, which is why I’m picking the Rockets to escape with a victory.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

12/8 CBB

Last night 3-3, -.3 units.

Not a lot out there tonight, but there are a couple interesting matchups.

Iowa +6.5 vs Iowa State 1 unit

No one seems to be giving the Hawkeyes much of a shot tonight, but I'm not ready to count them out just yet despite their record.  Iowa is playing one of the fastest tempos in the country and Iowa State isn't scared to run with anyone themselves.  With that being said, the story of the Iowa State season so far has been their defense which has made drastic steps forward and is holding opponents to 61 points per game.  I think this one goes down to the wire and the Hawkeyes home crowd keeps this rivalry game interesting.

Vanderbilt +2 vs Middle Tennessee State 1 unit

Vanderbilt will be the biggest test of the season so far for Middle Tennessee State and Vanderbilt has played a much more difficult schedule thus far.  The Commodores are also shooting almost 43% from three this season which should give them another edge tonight.  It's likely to be a very slow paced game and I like Vandy to get the road win here.

Pacific +10 at UMass 1 unit

Even without TJ Wallace for Pacific tonight this looks like a lot of points for Massachusetts to be giving up to me.  Neither side looks to have too much offensive firepower or shoot well from the outside and with that being said it's difficult to envision a double digit blowout for the Minutemen.

Flip's Soccer Overs of The Day - Europa League Group Stage Finale

Yesterday we went 1-1, -0.8U…the high juice in the Legia over ultimately costing us almost a unit.  Today we’ve got the final group stage fixtures of the Europa League.  Similar to Champions League, some teams have already qualified for the knockout stage, so less to play for...but...that doesn't mean we won't see goals! Here are a few games that look like they may light up the scoreboard:

11:00AM EST: 2U FC Zurich/Osmanlispor Ov 2½ (-110).  Nothing is cemented for the knockout stage in Group L, so both of these teams will be fighting to qualify for the next round. The first match went 2-1 and saw 20+ goal attempts. Expect similar today. 

11:00AM EST: 2U Fiorentina/Qarabag FK Ov 2½ (+105).  Same situation as above, as Group J is still wide open as to who will be through to the next round.  Fiorentina blew out Qarabag in the first match 5-1 and both teams have gone over 2.5 for three games straight.  We’ll take the generous juice and eagerly wait for Firoentina to score 3 times or take a 2-1 lead.

1:00PM EST: 1U Roma/Astra Ov 2½ (-140).  Roma’s already through to the next round and will be resting players, but Astra is not.  They’ll have to attack and score if they want to ensure a spot in the knockout round.  Despite Roma leaving players at home, I don’t think they’ll just roll over and park the bus for 90 minutes.   Given what’s at stake for Astra and Roma’s competitiveness, we should see a 2-1 game before the final whistle.

3:05PM EST: 1U Hapoel Beer Sheva/Southampton Ov 2½ (+100).  We’ll finish our day with what I hope will end up being a smart pick.  I realize the first leg went goal-less, however, Beer Sheva need a win or a score draw (1-1, 2-2 etc.) to progress to the next stage.  If they can slip one past Southampton’s stingy defense, Southampton will have no choice but to go for a 2-1 win to advance.  This is a spot on paper you wouldn’t expect to see goals, but I’m going to play contrarian and risk 1U that there’s enough scoring chances to get us over the total of 2.5.

NBA Picks 12/8

Last Night: 4-1 +2.9U
Cavs win easy and the game went over 216
Kings blowout the Mavs
Warriors coast to a win against the Clips but the game falls under 222

1U Blazers +1.5 (-110) – 8:00 PM EST

Just 1 play for tonight after a big night last night. The Blazers will be playing their 2nd night of a back to back in Memphis tonight after losing to the Bucks last night. The Blazers have been very up and down this season and prior to last night’s loss had been 4-1 ATS in their last 5 which was a significant improvement after a horrendous start to the year. I expect the Blazers to come out firing tonight behind Damian Lillard and avenge their loss from yesterday. The Grizz are also still without PG Mike Conley but have managed to squeak out 4 consecutive wins without him by an average of 2.75 points per. I think that luck will end tonight as the back court of Portland will be too much for the banged up Grizzly back court to handle. On a personal note – these are the 2 teams that I have picked the most this year, so I’m interested in seeing how this game goes. 

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Jay's CBB for 12/7

Yesterday started with a bang and then we hit the skids.  Ended up 2-3, hit the 2 unit play, -.3 units overall.

Nebraska/Creighton under 146.5 1 unit

I'm banking on Nebraska slowing this down to a crawl, it's their only chance to stay close in this one. Creighton plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation, so the Huskers will have their hands full, but they have been focused on defense and a slow tempo all season so far and in a rivalry game I think they will stick to their plan and keep it close.

Kentucky -20 vs Valpo 1 unit
Over 155.5 1 unit

Kentucky is coming in off a loss to UCLA at home last weekend and I expect them to put on quite the show tonight.  I'm not normally a fan of taking a favorite this big, but Kentucky is simply one of the best in the nation on both ends of the ball and with their depth has no problem running for 40 minutes.  They are beating teams by 30-40 points consistently and I wouldn't be surprised to see them over 90 again tonight.

California -1 vs Seton Hall 1 unit
Seton Hall/Cal under 135 1 unit
Princeton/Hawaii under 133.5 1 unit

The Hawaii effect for all 3 of these plays.

Flip's Soccer Overs of The Day - Champions League Group Stage Finale!

Arsenal gets the job done yesterday, after going up 3-0 just after the start of the second half (+1U)...always  a nice feeling when we don't need to wait too long see our picks/predictions come true.  That's our second winning day in a row, as well.

Current year: 198-173, +26.15U.  Note 1: I think as everyone is aware, this record/unit total does not consider any games we pushed or "No Action."  We only tally the wins and loses. 

With 25 days left in 2016 (including today) our "goal" (pun intended) will be to finish around the +40U mark.  Our boy Sam set the bar high at +45U for his MLB season, so we'll try and come close, if not exceed that. Note 2: Due to Soccer running year round, we'll consider our year to run Jan 1 - Dec 31.

I think that covers the housekeeping.  Let's dive into the final day of Champions League Group Stage.  Once again, some tough scenarios given that teams have already qualified for the knockout round.  With playoff spots somewhat finalized, can be tough to tell who's gonna "show up" and actually go for the back of the net vs. parking the bus for 90 minutes.  As we saw yesterday, this didn't necessarily prevent games from going over 2.5 or's just a factor we have to bear in mind when making selections for our soccer overs.

2:45PM EST: 2U Borussia Dortmund/Real Madrid Ov 3 (-145). The offensive prowess of these teams doesn't need an introduction.  Like the first head-to-head this ought to a be high-scoring battle, but this time it's for for the top spot in Group F and a top seed in the knockout round.  Going to keep at 2U since the total is 3, however.

2:45PM EST 2U Sporting Lisbon/Legia Warszawa Ov 2½ (-140).  Legia's allowed 24 goals in five Champions League group stage contests...and no wins. If they win today, they will snatch the Europa League spot from Lisbon.  With nothing to lose, they oughta be in "all-out-attack" mode and Lisbon's going to have to respond.  The first leg went 2-0 Lisbon, but we'll look for the score to hit 3-0 or 2-1 today given what's at stake.

NBA Picks 12/7

Last Night: 2-0 +2U
Knicks top the Heat easily
After being down at the half, the Spurs dominate the 2nd half

1U Cavs -5 (-110) – 8:00 PM EST

The Cavs take on the Knicks tonight in New York (sorry about that, must've misread something there). The Knicks have been surprisingly good this year and are coming off an easy win last night against the Heat. The Cavs are coming off a big win against Toronto on Monday night where they snapped their 3 game losing streak. Unfortunately for the Knicks, they are taking on the Cavs on the 2nd night of a back to back which very rarely bodes well for anyone. Lebron James and his “Big 3” will look to continue to stay on track tonight, and with the extra rest should have no issue running away from Carmelo, Porzingis, Derrick Rose, and the rest of this tired Knicks team.

1U Knicks/Cavs Over 216 (-110) – 8:00PM EST

Both teams in this matchup this evening have extremely talented offenses with a significant amount of top end scoring depth. The Cavs obviously have Lebron who is averaging 24 points per game this year, but surprisingly Kyrie Irving is the team leader in scoring averaging 24.4. The Cavs also boast a 3rd 20 point scorer in Kevin Love, and these 3 big time scoring options essentially make them unstoppable on that end of the court. Their offense averages over 110 points per and are the 4th best offense in the entire NBA. The Knicks offense isn’t too shabby either, with Carmelo averaging 23, Porzingis 20, and Derrick Rose 17. Their offense scores 105 per game but can certainly put up more. The Knicks defense is poor though and I expect the Cavs to exploit that, which is why I see this game going over 216.

1U Kings -3.5 (-110) – 8:30PM EST

In Dallas tonight the Mavericks will be hosting the Sacramento Kings. The Kings and Mavs have both struggled this year and have a combined record of 11-29. The Kings do however have some significant offensive pieces, despite their poor record. Demarcus Cousins is one of the best big men in the NBA and leads the team in scoring (29.1 PPG), rebounding (10.5 RPG), and blocks (1.4) BPG, and really does stuff the stat sheet. Rudy Gay is no slouch either though as he is 2nd on the on the team in all 3 of those categories and leads the team in minutes and steals per game. The Mavs have been plagued by injuries, and while they have a little more depth then the Kings do, they just don’t have the scoring power to keep up with them tonight, especially with Dirk still being out.

1U Warriors -2.5 (-110) and 1U Clippers/Warriors Over 222 (-110) – 10:30PM EST

In what is arguably the best matchup so far in this young season, the Warriors will be playing the Clippers. The Warriors are coming off a blowout win on Monday night where Klay Thompson scored 60 points while sitting out the entire 3rd quarter. The Golden State offense seems to really be clicking, and Kevin Durant and Steph Curry have definitely found a way to coexist while both still being dominant offensive threats.  The Warriors have also won 14 of their last 15 with their only loss coming in a double OT game. The Clippers are no slouch though, and have the 3rd best record in the Western Conference. They go 5 deep offensively with CP3 and Blake leading the way, and are probably the number 1 contender in the West to knock off the Warriors. I just feel that with how hot the Warriors have been, and how important this game will be for both teams, that the Warriors will come out firing again and win this one in a close yet high scoring matchup which will break 222 total points.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

NCAA 12/6 - Sam

12/6 NCAA

No time for write ups but here's what I am on tonight:

Old Dominion +8, 1U
Florida +7.5, 1U
Illinois 1H -7, 2U
Chattanooga 1H -7, 1U

12/5: 0-1 
Season: 40-31, +3.2 U's