Introduction

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Picks are generally graded on a 1-3 Unit ("U") scale, with 3U being highest confidence level.

1U = your standard wager.

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Friday, April 28, 2017

NBA Picks 4/28

Last Night: 1-1 -.1
Raptors win the series in a low scoring affair that goes under
Spurs win the game and series and the game goes over 189.5

1U Wizards +3 (-110) – 730PM EST

The Wiz are coming off a big game 5 win to take control of the series on Wednesday. This has been a very competitive series so far with each team winning all its home games. I think tonight that trend finally comes to an end and the Wizards close the series on the road in Atlanta. Despite the significant depth advantage that the Hawks have over the Wizards, I think the fact that the NBA is a guard oriented game, and that the Wizards have the 2 best guards in this matchup in John Wall and Bradley Beal will ultimately lead to the Wizards getting the game and series victory tonight.

1U Celtics/Bulls over 203.5 (-110) and 1U Celtics -2.5 (-110) – 8PM EST

This is essentially the same pick I made Wednesday night and I expect the same result. Wednesday the Celtics went up 3-2 in the series thanks to a 108-97 victory (205 total points). The Celtics offense has been better on the road this series then at home, and same for the Bulls. I think the Bulls will come out swinging and the game will be close throughout, but the Celtics will ultimately escape with a similar result as the other night, a victory where they pull away late, and a game that hits the over!

1U Clippers +6 (-110) – 1030PM EST

The Clips are coming off 2 straight losses and find themselves playing for their playoff lives tonight as they trail the series 3 games to 2. On top of that, they showed a lackluster offensive performance Tuesday night in their first game without injured Blake Griffin. I don’t necessarily think the Clippers will win this evening, but they are definitely going to fight. With a Jazz offense that doesn’t score a ton of points (under 100 in all 3 of their wins this series), it allows the Clips to hang around despite missing a key piece. This game will likely be low scoring, just like Tuesdays 96-92 Jazz win, and I expect the score to be similar. So even if the Clips do not win this game, I think they’ll keep it close enough to cover.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

NBA Picks 4/27

Last Night: via Twitter 1-0 +2U
Celts/Bulls go over 202.5 easily

1U Bucks/Raptors Over 195.5 (-110) – 7PM EST

The Raptors go into this game looking to clinch the series victory. This has been a highly competitive series thus far and I expect tonight to be a hard fought, back and forth game. Of the 5 games in this series, only 2 of them have broken the 195.5 point mark which is the number set for tonight. I feel like tonight with both teams having so much to play for, that this game will open up a little more as each side will try to find the edge offensively. Additionally, Toronto seems to have figured out the Bucks stingy defense as they dropped 118 last game, and while I don’t see them scoring that many tonight – I do see them in the hundreds.

1U Spurs/Grizz Over 189.5 (-110) – 930PM EST

3rd time this series picking the over – I’m 2-0 picking it so far. This number is a little higher then what I’ve picked in the previous 2, but nonetheless still attainable. The last 3 games have all broken 189.5 as well as both games played in Memphis previously in the series. With tonight being a closeout game for the Spurs, they’re going to try to lock the Grizz down. With the strategy the Grizz have approached games with in the 2nd half of this series though, they have had a much easier time scoring. I see this game looking a lot like Game 4 where it was close throughout (though I’m not projecting OT).

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Flip's Soccer Overs of The Day - April 26

Quick check in on the year thus far:

84-68, +16.65U

Rough start to April/2Q, as the record is well above .500, but we've lost some of the higher unit plays:

20-14  -3.35U

Hopefully we finish strong this week and get to even or above as we head into May.

Posted a pair of plays yesterday, here they are again, with some additional action:

EPL
1U Spurs/Palace o2.5 (-155) [I've seen this line drop, so I'm going add another unit]
1U Spurs/Palace o2.5 (-140)

Spain
1U Barcelona/Osasuna o4.5 (-155)

Sweden
1U Elfsborg/Sundsvall o2.5 (-150)

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

NBA Picks 4/25

Last Night: 1-1 +.9U
Wizards can’t hang with the Hawks
Warriors get the sweep in easy fashion

2U Grizzlies/Spurs over 186.5 (-110) – 9PM EST

I essentially made this same exact pick on Friday, 4/21. That game had an O/U of 185 and the final score of that one was 105-94 totaling 199 points. Also, in game 4, the game also totaled well over what the number is set at tonight by scoring 218. Granted, both those games that went over were in Memphis, and now we’re back in San Antonio where the first 2 games of the series averaged a whooping 185.5 points per game. The Grizzlies have started to play much better though and are getting big contributions from Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph. Spurs lead man Kawai Leonard is also having a beastly series, where he is averaging 32.5 points per game. While I don’t see this one being a 218 point contest like game 4 was, I certainly see it being higher scoring then the first 2 games that were in San An, which should get this game to break 186.5 somewhat easily if that occurs.

1U Rockets -7.5 (-110) – 8PM EST

The Rockets have a commanding 3-1 lead in this series heading into a home game tonight. Russell Westbrook has done everything he can to keep the Thunder in it, and despite a series average of 35 points, 11.3 assists, and 11.8 rebounds, no one else on the Thunder has been able to provide anything. Their lack of depth is just so significant in comparison to the depth of the Rockets, who other than James Hardens 33 PPG, have 4 other players scoring over 10 per game. Because of this depth, and the fact that OKC has been completely outplayed in Houston, I see the Rockets closing the series out tonight in astounding fashion.

Monday, April 24, 2017

NBA Picks 4/24

1U Wizards +2.5 (-110) 8PM EST

Wizards go in tonight up 2-1 and trying to take full control of the series. While Atlanta has the depth, the Wiz definitely have the high end talent with John Wall and Bradley Beal. In tonight’s battle I think that John Wall is going to take over and have a big game and that will be too much for the Hawks to handle.

2U Warriors -7 (-110) – 1030PM EST

The Warriors are looking for the sweep tonight. Unfortunately they’ll be without Kevin Durant and Head Coach Steve Kerr. Fortunately, they still have 2 time defending MVP Steph Curry, fellow splash bro Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and the rest of their squad which won game 3 119-113 without Durant also. I think that game 3 defeat will end up being too demoralizing for the Blazers, who had their best chance that game to make this series interesting. Tonight Steph and Klay will outplay their Blazers counterparts of Lillard and McCollum and that will ultimately lead to a relatively easy victory.

Friday, April 21, 2017

NBA Picks 4/21

Last Night: 2-1 +1.9
Cavs make a big comeback to get the win and cover
Bucks blowout the Raptors in a game that didn’t hit the over
Grizz/Spurs went well over 185

2U Celtics +1 (-110) – 7PM EST

The Bulls have played great this series so far. Rondo and Wade are looking like the old versions of themselves and Jimmy Butler is playing well. The Bulls are also getting significant bench contributions and are dominating the series on the glass. I just find it very hard to believe (and maybe because I’m a Celtics fan) that the 1 seeded Celtics are going to pack it in and lose tonight. I think they’re going to come into this game very fired up and get up early. Isaiah Thomas will of course lead the way, but tonight I expect his supporting cast to contribute more significantly. The Celtics will need big games out of Al Horford, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder in order to swing the momentum of this series, but I expect that to happen.

1U Rockets +2.5 (-110) – 930PM EST

Russell Westbrook had a historic game in game 2 for the Thunder. He has 51 points, 10 rebounds, 13 assists, and 4 steals, and somehow his team still managed to lose the game. Besides Westbrook, the Thunder just don’t have anyone else. So, while Westbrook will almost certainly have a good game, the Rockets have James Harden, Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Nene, and Clint Capela all who are averaging over 10 points per game, with Harden leading the way with 36. The Thunder only have 2 guys that average that much. The Thunder just don’t have enough guns and the Rockets have a lot of them – so the Rockets will win this game, despite Westbrooks best efforts.

1U Clippers -1.5 (-110) – 10PM EST

After a crushing 2 point loss in game 1 to the Jazz, the Clippers bounced back well in game 2 to get the 8 point victory. Although tonights game is in Utah and not LA, I still anticipate this game looking more like game 2 then 1. CP3 and Blake Griffin have played well in both games, as has DeAndre Jordan, but no one else on the team has really. I expect that to change tonight and for the Clippers, I expect a better offensive output. The Jazz have played well all season, but have really relied on their defense (#1 scoring D in the NBA). With my expectation of a better offensive game by the Clips, I just don’t think the Jazz have enough top level scoring (other than Hayward) to be able to keep up, so I see the Clippers getting this one.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Flip's Soccer Overs of The Day - April 21

Haven't posted in a hot minute...but we have a BIG slate of soccer overs for Friday, April 21st:

All plays 1U

Germany: Koln/Hoffenheim o2.5 (-130).  Koln is on the outside looking in at a Europa league spot, while Hoffenheim is looking to maintain it's position for a Champions League promotion.  Both sides will be looking to nab 3 points from this match, and the goals should result.  Koln's netted 9 and conceded 9 in their past five matches.  Hoffenheim's scored 11 and given up 6.  We ought to witness three goals in this one with relative ease.

England: Norwich/Brighton o2.5 (-140).  Norwich's epic collapse continues, as they once sat atop the Championship League with hopes of promotion back to the Premier League...and now they sit 10 points behind the final playoff spot.  Brighton has already locked up a promotion to the Premier League, but I don' t see them sitting back on their laurels just yet.  Both teams have scored double digit goals over their five previous matches, and Norwich leads the league in games hitting over 2.5 goals (30 out of 43 played.)  I expect us to see a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Brighton before the final whistle blows.

Ireland: Bray/Shamrock o2.5 (-110) & St. Patricks/Cork o2.5 (+100).  Bray, Shamrock and Cork all lead the Irish Premier Division in games over 2.5 goals, with a whopping 7 of their 9 respective matches reaching 3 or more goals.  I'm willing to stake a unit on these two games that the trend will continue.

Sweden: Gefle/Syrianska o2.5 (+100). Both sides are averaging nearly 2 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match, early on in the Swedish Superettan (Second Division) League.   With such open play and generous odds, worth the 1U risk that we'll go over 2.5 in this one.

Peru: San Martin/Sporting Cristal o2.5 (-125).  Adding a rare nightcap to our Overs of the Day, the top two overs teams in Peru square off at 9PM EST.  8 of Sporting's 10 league matches witnessed 3 or more goals scored...and San Martin isn't far behind with 7 of 9 doing the same.  Pending today's action, this play may increase to a 2U play.  Will tweet out if that's the case.

Let's start our weekend off right with some goals and units in the pockets!

-Flip

NBA Picks 4/20

Last Night: 1-1 -.1
Hawks kept it close, but Wizards ultimately escaped with a win and cover
Blazers got murdered. Bad choice picking them, I’ll move on.

2U Cavs -3 (-110) – 7PM EST

The Cavs travel to Indiana leading the series 2-0. Both games 1 and 2 were decided by under 10 points, and both were relatively high scoring affairs. Lebron was dominant in both games, which I fully expect to continue tonight. Additionally, Kyrie and Kevin Love have both come to play in both contests rounding out the Big 3. Last game all 3 guys went over 20 points (with Kyrie over 30). Paul George has been great on the stat sheet for Indiana, but he seems to be getting extremely frustrated with his supporting cast. I think tonight that frustration will boil over for a 3rd straight game – and with dysfunction on the Pacer end of things, and the Cavs Big 3 playing straight up dominant basketball, the Cavs should win this one easy and extend their first round playoff winning streak to 11 straight.

1U Raptors/Bucks over 196.5 (-110) – 8PM EST

In what has been a good series so far, the Bucks and Raptors are tied at one win a piece heading to Milwaukee. Game 1 had a score of 97-83 Bucks totaling 180 points, while game 2 was much higher scoring 206 total points in a W for the Raptors. I expect this game to look much more like game 2 though then like game 1. Simply put, Toronto just didn’t show up game 1 and got completely out played. While I don’t have a pick as who will win this one, I anticipate a game in the hundreds for each team and for it to come down to the wire.

1U Grizzlies/Spurs over 185 (-110) – 930 PM EST

The Spurs have dominated the Grizz in both games of this series, winning by an average of 21.5 points per game. I think tonight the Grizz play a little better than they have, especially since they will be at home and will be backing up their coach after he made some very harsh criticisms of the refs (despite the fact that he was right). Game 1 topped 185 easily, while game 2 fell just short. I think at home the Grizzly offense will fare better than the 82 points they put up in both games 1 and 2. And while the Spurs offense likely won’t put up the 111 they scored in game 1, I see both teams being in the high 90’s for points scored, which will get the game over 185. 

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

NBA Picks 4/19

Last Night: 0-2 -3.3
Rough start to my FTM playoff career. Celtics get smokes, Clips win but only by 9.

1U Wizards -5.5 (-110) – 7PM EST

The Wizards coasted to a 7 point win in the opening game of this series on Sunday. John Wall was absolutely dominant as he put up 32 points to go along with 14 assists. Bradley Beal also showed up and scored 22. Between those 2 stars and then a great bench effort they dominated the 2nd half of the game. I don’t expect tonight to be much different. I anticipate strong performances by Wall and Beal and expect their supporting cast to simply to their job. While Atlanta does have some depth, they just simply don’t have the star power to be able to keep up with the Wizards.

1U Blazers +13.5 (-110) - 1030PM EST

The Blazers are down 0-1 in this series after losing game 1 121-109. CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard both showed up big time, CJ with 41 and Dame with 34, but they didn’t get much contribution from elsewhere on the team. Also – as expected, Steph and KD went off for the Warriors, both floating around the 30 point mark, and Klay and Dray both had good games as well. With KD a little banged up still I wonder if he can have another game like he did the other night. While I don’t think that the Warriors are going to lose this game, or even lose a game all series, I do think that they won’t play as well tonight as they did in game 1 which will inevitably make this game closer than the 12 point win they had the other night. Will CJ and Lillard might not do what they did either, I expect their bench and supporting cast to perform better as they basically did nothing in the first game